State Cremation Rate Milestones

The national cremation rate has grown steadily and predictably for the last 50 years. Nothing has interrupted this pattern, neither recessions nor a pandemic, at least on the national level. CANA has tracked this national data for more than a century but has collected state level data just for the past 25 years. As we first reported in 2017, cremation growth rates follow a similar pattern that varies by region of the country and some demographic factors. These patterns emerge as S-curves, a common framework in statistics, representing growth in cremation over time. CANA’s consultant, Arvind Singhal, took this research further and created a model that projects cremation rate growth by state through the end of the century.

Cremation and death numbers will vary and that's important to track for business planning: case volume influences staffing and capital investments. However, these projected cremation rates – percentages of the total – describe long-term trends. Besides being an interesting intellectual exercise, these predictions can also be useful in business planning. Though, if it seems like science fiction, you would be right. Projecting out further than 5-20 years introduces many demographic and other variables that make the projections less reliable, but still fascinating. CANA's Milestone Report, originally published in 2021, suggests a picture of continued cremation growth in a predictable shape.

The Cremation S-Curve

S-curves are a line on a graph that starts off rising pretty slowly and then ramps up quickly before eventually leveling off. This shape appears everywhere, often representing an innovation or adoption of new technology. Picture the invention of cars, televisions, or smart phones: just a few early adopters, it catches on and everyone starts using it, then the population that will adopt it does and there’s nowhere to grow. The S-curve looks more like a lazy, stretched S, but is distinct from other growth shapes such as straight-line or stair step. There are five phases to a trend that is depicted as an S-curve:

1. Early period or long tail. For cremation, that was the 96 years between 1876 and 1971 until the cremation rate reached 5% nationally.
2. Early adoption or the beginning of the end. This is the turning point phase that will determine if something is likely to succeed in the long run (take S shape) or see its demise (head downward toward lower values). When cremation rates started rising faster than a linear graph could predict, it signaled the S-curve and has become a defined trend. For products like Betamax and BlackBerry, their curve continued back down and failed to catch on, ultimately representing a blip.
3. Rapid growth, which is the period we are currently experiencing in the US. The cremation rate has grown from 5% in 1972 to 60.6% in 2023. Here, too, new products or services can fail if they don’t continue to innovate to be more useful or more available to the population that would choose it.
4. Deceleration is the next stage. Growth slows and begins to form the upper curve of the S. States with cremation rates approaching or exceeding 70% are in this phase. CANA’s 2023 Annual Report suggests that the US nationally and individual states could be approaching this phase but does not have actual data that proves deceleration or plateau. These are represented in the image as speculative projections.
5. A persistent plateau occurs after a slow down. The rapid rise of the S-curve is complete and growth has leveled off. We know that the cremation rate will never reach 100% as a straight-line analysis would predict. But that upper boundary can vary and is largely dependent on the growth trajectory—or middle part—of the S. A few states have already begun to slow down, though none have quite plateaued yet.
   

State Cremation Rate Growth

S-curves describe adoption of a trend or technology. When did cremation stop being a curiosity and start becoming a trend? In 1972. When did cremation become the majority of consumers’ preference? Nationally, the rate topped 50% in 2016—but, of course, it varies state by state. Some states hit the mark even earlier, before 2000, when CANA wasn’t yet collecting state-level data.

Our first chart shows when individual states reach 50% cremation rate – reporting existing data or projecting forward. Since this report was first published in 2021, the cremation rate in Arkansas, Virginia and West Virginia have each surpassed 50% as predicted by the chart. By 2033, cremation is predicted to be the preferred form of disposition in every state.

For 2023, CANA added a new color to the national heat maps to highlight the six states where the cremation rate is now above 80% – these states also predicted in the chart from 2021. The farther out a projection is, the more room error there is – we can’t account for world events, demographic change, culture shifts, etc. However, CANA statistics predict that more than half of the country will join these early-adopter states and surpass 80% before 2040 – less than 20 years from now.

This CANA research shows each state’s projected cremation growth patterns as they reach two milestones: 50% (top) and 80% (bottom) cremation rates.

Disposition Disruption

As we conducted research for this article, we learned that trends are borne from trends. For example, the adoption of personal computers led naturally to smart phones as the next improvement of the technology. Personal computers plateaued when they were integrated into nearly all types of business, personal, and education use. Then smart phones somewhat leapfrogged over computer use in some areas of the world and in some professions.

Turning to death care, it will be interesting to observe how new and existing forms of disposition may grow out of the adoption of cremation. Is alkaline hydrolysis an S-curve building on top of cremation? What about natural organic reduction? Only time will tell. For now, these new forms of disposition are difficult to track. That’s because half of the states offering alkaline hydrolysis do not differentiate between AH and flame cremation. If the legalization trend continues to redefine cremation to include AH and NOR, it will continue to be difficult to track these dispositions separately from flame cremation.

Are You Ready?

Are you persuaded? Now’s the time to embrace cremation. CANA has the tools to support your own growth as the cremation rate grows around you.

Further Reading

These blogposts are just skimming the surface of all the knowledge that the CANA network has to offer, the decades of research and reports, and generations of expertise in cremation success.

The Cremation Experience Before and During The Pandemic: Want more CANA research? We asked decision-makers why they chose cremation for their loved one for the first time in their family, and then we listened close.

Is This The Tipping Point For Online Arrangement?: A look at data for online arrangements during the height and aftermath of the pandemic.

Enhanced Statistics Enhance Your Business Success: What kinds of communities are early adopters of cremation? Take a look at CANA’s demographic research.

Multiple Brands, One Market: Different strategies to differentiate your brand in how you set up your operations.

Hungry for Growth: Creating a Thriving Cremation Brand: Another look at branding, but this time positioning your company in your community of competitors.

Education

Ready to get to work? CANA’s Online Education Courses are on-demand and filled with practical takeaways you can put to work right away. Here are a few to consider.

Cremation Arrangement Conference Best Practices – $30, 2.0 CEUs
Learn how you can communicate with cremation families during the arrangement conference to ensure they walk away with peace of mind, knowing their loved one will be memorialized in a way that best represents the life that person lived.

Cremation Phone Shoppers: Your Best First Impression – $15, 1.0 CEUs
When you answer the next cremation phone shopper call, do you know what to say to convert them to a customer? Or will you turn them away by not giving them the right information? This course will teach you how to effectively answer and handle the next phone shopper call.

The Cremation Choice – $30, 2.0 CEUs
Cremation is a form of disposition—but also so much more in the minds of funeral professionals and consumers. This course explores the latest research from CANA to better understand consumer and professional attitudes toward cremation. Taking this class will help you understand the cremation customer, challenge your biases, and find new ways to serve your community's needs.

CANA-Certified Cremation Specialist – $465 for CANA Members, $615 for all other funeral professionals, 11.0 CEUs – Registration closes July 1, 2024
Anyone can claim they are a cremation specialist. What sets a CANA-Certified Cremation Specialist apart is the training they receive to ensure everyone is treated with the same level of care, service, and compassion.

106th Annual Cremation Innovation Convention – $860 for CANA Members, $1060 for Nonmembers, 7.0 CEUs – Chicago: September 11-13, 2024
CANA’s 106th Convention is your opportunity to get to know your peers from funeral homes, crematories, and cemeteries and explore all Chicago has to offer. Industry experts will take the stage to share practical ways that you can address today's challenges to meet tomorrow's demand with sessions on cybersecurity, memorialization, leadership, the role of women in funeral service, and much more!

This original research from CANA was first published in 2021 in Volume 57, Issue 4 of The Cremationist. Access to CANA research and magazine and archives are resources available exclusively to members. Not a member yet? Your firm can join for just $495 and gain the benefit of more than a century of cremation expertise.

CANA Research takes the stage at the 106th Annual Cremation Innovation Convention this September 11-13, 2024 in Chicago. CANA President Robert Hunsaker will share how The Answer is in the Numbers and identify strategies to remain profitable in today's market. See what else we have planned and register to attend the CANA Convention!

Like the CANA's Annual Cremation Statistics Report, the statistical analysis and projections in this post were conducted by Arvind Singhal of Singhal LLC. Arvind earned his Bachelor of Engineering from IIT, Roorkee, Master of Science in Engineering from Western Michigan University, and an MBA from Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University.